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The ongoing conflict in Gaza is the longest war waged by Israel since its creation in 1947. It is also the most deadly and devastating onslaught faced by the Palestinian people. While Palestinians and Israelis seek to end the conflict, Israeli leaders, but also, ironically, Hamas, want to prolong the bloody showdown, each having an interest in its continuation.
Netanyahu appears determined to continue the Israeli army’s assault on Gaza despite the heavy toll on the enclave’s civilian population. His declared aim is to meet his set objectives for the war, namely the recovery of the hostages and “the annihilation of Hamas”. He is also convinced that any cessation of hostilities could lead him to be held accountable before Israeli justice.
Hamas, on the other hand, seeks to secure a prime spot for itself in any post-war political landscape, especially since it believes that the Palestinian Authority is collapsing after its policies reached their utmost limits. They see the PA’s credibility eroding and its authority increasingly rejected by the Palestinian people for failing to stop Israel’s expansionist policies.
Despite the unprecedented expressions of support from the international community for the Palestinian cause, Palestinian leaders have remained essentially lethargic. Deepening divisions between Hamas and the Palestinian Authority have continued for the last 17 years with the blessing of the Israeli occupation. Both Palestinian factions seem determined to maintain the status quo. The possibility of both forging a unified front in any post-war peace talks is just wishful thinking.
The Palestinian Authority, which has clearly run out of steam, is unable to stop the occupying forces’ repression or halt settler attacks. It is struggling desperately to resuscitate its severely atrophied legitimacy. General elections, initially scheduled for 2021, were actually indefinitely postponed by President Mahmoud Abbas.
There are two scenarios for the future course of events. The most likely one is that Netanyahu will continue his war in Gaza, seeking at all costs to give the impression that he has fulfilled his pledge to eradicate the Hamas threat and recover the hostages while he continues to manoeuvre to keep his governing coalition in place in order to escape justice. Such a scenario would be catastrophic for the Palestinian people and would prevent any serious resumption of peace talks, thus dashing any hope for the creation, within any reasonable time frame, of an independent Palestinian state.
The second possible scenario is that internal and international pressures end up dampening the unbridled war ambitions of the Israeli prime minister and causing the Israeli coalition to fracture with the far-right ministers eventually leaving the cabinet. Such an outcome would speed up ceasefire negotiations and alleviate the suffering of the population in Gaza. This scenario is supported by the American government, as well as by Arab states. The latter have prepared a 12-point document listing measures that would clear the decks for the re-launch of negotiations. This would in turn pave the way for a return of calm in the Palestinian territories and constitute a beginning of the end for the crisis, thus making it possible above all to start serious negotiations with a view to reaching a peaceful settlement of the conflict on the basis of two-state solution. This process, which promises to be long, arduous and complex, would require a serious commitment by the international community, especially the United States, as well as a clear determination on the part of the Palestinians to overcome their divisions and establish a united front in the face of an Israel which is adamant about undermining any serious efforts towards the emergence of an independent Palestinian state.
One of the immediate consequences of the ongoing war and its ripple effects around the world is the end of the isolation of the Palestinians in the international arena and the return of their cause once again to centre stage. The October 7 attack has also interrupted, at least temporarily, the normalisation dynamic which began with the Abraham Accords. By carrying out its attack on southern Israel, Hamas was also seeking to break the blockade imposed by the Israeli occupation on the Gaza Strip, as well as to position itself as an alternative to the largely-discredited Palestinian Authority.
The war also demonstrated that regional issues are deeply intertwined and cannot be addressed separately.
The Hamas attack was in way a watershed event causing a fundamental shift in the way the Israeli-Palestinian conflict is perceived and addressed.
The demonstrated lack of real commitment by the international community and Arab states to a genuine peaceful resolution of the conflict, as well as the decision of some Arab countries to conclude normalisation deals with the Jewish state, without taking into consideration the legitimate rights of the Palestinian people, have undoubtedly contributed to the outbreak of the fighting. That approach has given way to the realisation that the settlement of the Palestinian issue constitutes a central element in any reconciliation between Arab countries and Israel. Saudi Arabia, while reiterating its intention to continue its quest for a security pact with the US as part of a larger normalisation package, now wants Washington to commit itself to facilitating a diplomatic process leading to the creation of a Palestinian state, as a sine qua non condition for any formal ties with Israel. In more than one respect, the Gaza war has definitely been a regional game changer.
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